ABSTRACT Keller Army Hospital Primary Care Facility Electronic Medical Records System Team members: Britt Cleveland Nic Doerr Tim Quinlan Corey Sherk Regan Tatford Faculty Advisor: Patrick Downes Client: LTC Victor McGlaughlin, KACH Primary Care This project focuses on helping the Primary Care Facility of the Keller Army Hospital to best utilize its Electronic Medical Records system. We developed six alternative methods that the Primary Care Facility could integrate the Electronic Medical Record System. The project explores patient arrivals, appointment types, and processing times of patients in order to best utilize the doctors and nurses of the system. We have developed a set of performance evaluation measures and the alternative integration solutions are replicated using the popular discrete event simulation program ProModel. Our research concludes with an analysis of the six different alternatives and provides implementation guidance for our recommended alternative. Presentations Track: Modeling & Simulation Room #: 105 Time: 840 - 0925 ABSTRACT Feasibility Study on Automating Rules of Engagement (ROE) in Fully Automated Target Engagement Systems Team members: Jonathan Sammon Nathan Stone Craig Brewer Daniel Maher Faculty Advisor: Patrick Driscoll Client: None If the US Army is to take maximum advantage of the capabilities afforded by future sensor-to-shooter networks, one can easily posit that the extent of human intervention in the decision processes of these networks needs to be reduced in order to completely exploit the advantages of information technology. However, to prevent compromising the very safeguards that humans employ prior to committing fires on the battlefield, it is clear that these systems must somehow directly consider rules of engagement (ROE). This study applies a systems engineering framework to examine the feasibility conditions across a broad spectrum of performance categories under which these ROE could be automated and the challenges associated with doing so. Presentations Track: Process Modeling & Analysis Room #: 104 Time: 840 - 0925 ABSTRACT Ramp Operations Monitoring System (ROMS) Team members: Jorge Bonilla Hassan Mohamed Joel Norris Thang Phung Ingrid Zegadafrias Faculty Advisor: George Donohue Client: Unit s United Airlines (UAL) Operations estimates that they spent $1.39 million in flight delay costs last year. The SENSIS Corporation was sponsoring the design of a system that would assist airport ramp personnel in the allocation of ramp resources by physically tracking each resource. Through much research and analysis our group came to the conclusion that a good business case could not be made for SENSIS Corporation. Our main sponsor is now United Airlines. The system design described in this paper is an information, resource tracking, and communications system. The key operational benefits of the system include increased situational awareness for ramp personnel, and reduced operating costs. A top-down approach was implemented to design the Ramp Operations Monitoring System (ROMS). Research concerning airport operations was conducted to identify the current problems and inefficiencies with ramp resource allocation. Stakeholder interviews were conducted to generate system requirements. The House of Quality methodology was used to identify and define the system’s functional and physical architecture. Objectives hierarchies were developed to determine the weighting functions for the system’s requirements traceability matrix. A model was developed of the aircraft turn process. A model of daily ramp operations was also developed. Stochastic simulations were performed using the two models by using “Arena” to evaluate the proposed design’s overall performance– Arena is a discrete event simulation modeling environment. Preliminary results indicate that a business case can be developed for the system described in this paper. Tracking the aircraft turn process appears to be the critical task of the system. Presentations Track: Re-engineering Systems Room #: 106 Time: 840 - 0925 ABSTRACT Impact of SCRAMJET Technology in Supporting the Army's Mission to Defend CONUS Against Cruise Missles and TBM Team members: Russell Toll Charles Mayfield James Hall David Yu Faculty Advisor: Bobbie Foote Client: AMRDEC/SAIC/BAE The purpose of our research is to define a battle unit and to create a systems evaluation process to evaluate the military impact and value of using Scramjet technology in weapons systems as envisioned in military scenarios defined for the battle unit to engage threats. The initial stakeholder is the United States Army. The stakeholder needs are defined as follows: evaluate the possible contribution of Scramjet technology to Army transformation and development of future combat systems. Evaluations will then be measured against the objectives of flexibility, adaptability, lethality, response time, and the resultant impact on mission success. We model the system of attacker and defender by a net-work of queues with special queuing and service rules. Our battle unit will consist of a sensor system, a command and control system, and a defender system with n units. The units will have attributes assumed to be given. We will ap- proximate the system evaluation by a network of queues with balking and general service and general arrival distributions. Presentations Track: Statistical Analysis & Stochastic Processes Room #: 103 Time: 840 - 0925 ABSTRACT Prioritization of Base Camp Construction Team members: John Lee Cameron Keogh Matthew Gilbert David Smith Daniel Lao Faculty Advisor: Robert Powell Client: Engineering Resear elopment Center (ERDC) & Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (CERL) In a world of ever-demanding optimization, the Army is no different. Seeking to perfect the planning and building process of military basecamps around the world, the US Army Engineering Research and Development Center (ERDC) and the Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (CERL) looked to a cadet team from USMA’s Department of Systems Engineering. The end state is to have an interactive software decision support tool to aid commanders in the construction so that the basecamp would be built in the most optimal manner while considering key parameters. Drawing crucial information from personnel around the world about base camps, the cadet team conducted an in-depth data collection and analysis so that the support tool would most accurately reflect the needs and values of today’s Army. Working with metrics and value hierarchy, the team implemented Microsoft Excel as the chief design tool to create a workable program that the user can actively engage. After inputting a small amount of data and adjusting value scales, the user receives a prioritized list of planning functions and objectives that he/she can use towards planning. The beauty of the tool lies in the legitimate experience that is reflected in default settings for prioritized list. And being that it is only a tool, the commander can place as much value on the tool’s output as he/she wants—building strictly according to the output or discarding it altogether. Presentations Track: Decision Analysis Room #: 102 Time: 945 - 1030 ABSTRACT Power Draw and Battery Usage for the PEO Soldier System Team members: Jeffrey Bonheim Oliver Schrang Delente Brewer Brian Green Faculty Advisor: Bobbie Foote Client: PEO Soldier The United States Army is continuing research on the PEO Soldier system for the American soldier, particularly the area of power optimization. Utilizing the PEO Soldier system, American soldiers are given the capabilities of using personal protection body armor, lighter-weight helmets and the commander's digital assistant, which provides situational awareness and mission planning capabilities. With an already heavy load, the American soldier will also be weighed down by this system, so adding extra weight with batteries will only decrease a soldiers capabilities. The PEO Soldier system has to be reliable on the battlefield, but needs to be feasible in terms of weight. Our capstone team has looked at how the PEO Soldier System can be effective without adding any additional weight to the system, as well as looking into the battery component, the power draw and usage that will be affected by extreme temperatures in Baghdad, Iraq. Throughout this semester, our capstone team has conducted several types of analysis on the PEO Soldier System and Future Force Warrior. We have created a ProModel simulation where we gather power draw and usage from a modeled scenario that is likely to happen in Iraq. We have looked at battery power consumption, effects of temperature on battery power, and have looked at several vignettes that would help us gather information on how and where it would be likely for the Army to use the PEO Soldier System. We have demonstrated that an off-the–shelf simulation package can meaningfully simulate a standard AMSAA scenario. Presentations Track: Modeling & Simulation Room #: 105 Time: 945 - 1030 ABSTRACT Newspaper Distribution for the Colorado Springs Independent Team members: Kiel Martin John Miller Joe Thomer Faculty Advisor: Andy Armacost Client: Colorado Springs Independent The Colorado Springs Independent is the city’s only free, weekly newspaper. The publisher would like to ensure the newspaper is in the hands of its customers as soon as possible. We model this problem as a Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows (CVRPTW) with multiple vehicles of various capacities. We approach the solution through a two phased approach of clustering locations first, then routing vehicles second. The clustering phase relies on two integer programming formulations, which account for vehicle capacities and travel distances. The routing phase uses known heuristics to route the vehicles while accounting for the opening times of the delivery locations. We implement the solutions using Xpress, and optimization tool, and ArcView, a Geospatial Information System (GIS). Presentations Track: Process Modeling & Analysis Room #: 104 Time: 945 - 1030 ABSTRACT A Decision Tool to Address the Army’s BRAC 2005 Implementation Challenges Team members: Tanesha Love Ryan Johnson Paul Strozier Timothy Mccorkle Stanley Swaintek Faculty Advisor: Gregory Parnell Client: Dr. Craig College, Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army (Infrastructure Analysis) COL Bob Derrick, BRAC Division Chief, ACSIM This project was a West Point Department of Systems Engineering cadet research project sponsored by the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for Infrastructure Analysis who, in coordination with the Assistant Chief of Staff for Installation Management’s Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Division, requested a tool for Senior Army Leadership that will convey an understanding of BRAC 2005 implementation challenges. Our work is a continuation of a cadet research project from last year. To perform this task, we reviewed reports on past BRAC rounds, interviewed key stakeholders, collected data on past BRAC rounds, constructed influence and affinity diagrams, and conducted regression analysis. Based on our work, we identified possible factors that influence implementation complexity. We then used these complexity measures in creating three multiple objective decision analysis models: a disposition model, a closure model, and an environmental model. After creating the models we verified and validated them by randomly selecting four installations to withhold during the construction of the models. We evaluated these four installations with the model to verify the results. We also compared our results to a Bayesian network methodology for validation purposes. Finally, we provided our completed models to Center for Army Analysis where they will input BRAC data, adjust the ranges and value functions, assess the weights, and analyze the results. Presentations Track: Project Management Room #: 101 Time: 945 - 1030 ABSTRACT Improving West Point’s Parking/Routing System for Football Games Team members: Dan Cappello Jerome Clark Walker Gorham Matt Silva Faculty Advisor: Patrick Downes Client: Mr. Charles Peddy, Force Protection Officer Our team of system engineers has been tasked to evaluate the current system in place for handling fans entering post for home football games at the United States Military Academy. Specifically, we are evaluating the current traffic, parking, and routing plan of vehicles and fans during home football games at West Point. Our job is to evaluate the current system in place and recommend an alternative which will increase system efficiency and throughput. Initial meetings and data indicate that the current system results in excessive queue when entering/ exiting post, moving to the stadium, and entering Michie Stadium. Following the Systems Engineering and Management Process, we accurately defined the problem, and then generated four feasible alternatives. Using data from our ProModel simulation of the system, as well as existing data, we were able to compare our four feasible alternatives and provide our decision maker a recommendation that will improve the current system by the start of the 2005 home football season. Presentations Track: Re-engineering Systems Room #: 106 Time: 945 - 1030 ABSTRACT Forecasting Egg Hatchability Team members: Jason Honeycutt Faculty Advisor: Scott Mason Client: Cobb-Vantress, Inc. Cobb-Vantress, Inc. (“Cobb”) is the leading provider of broiler breeding stock in the world. Currently they hatch 2.3 million eggs per week. Of these hatched eggs, approximately 780,000 breeder chicks are produced, generating a net value of over $2,000,000. To accomplish this, Cobb uses a short term forecasting model to predict the number of eggs that will hatch for a given flock of chickens. Cobb’s forecasting model combines both quantitative methods and employee experience to generate a weekly projected hatch quantity for every flock. This project presents a cost function that attempts to capture the costs of making an inaccurate forecast. Next, several linear regression models are formulated to forecast the hatch rate of Cobb eggs. An optimization model is developed with the objective of minimizing the total cost of forecast error wherein the decision variables are the coefficients of the regression equation. In addition, we investigate incorporating some of the current methods that Cobb currently uses, such as moving deviation average. All forecasting methods are compared based on the total cost of forecast error and the model with the minimum cost is chosen for implementation at Cobb. Presentations Track: Statistical Analysis & Stochastic Processes Room #: 103 Time: 945 - 1030 ABSTRACT Systems Modeling and Analysis of Retread Supply Chain Operations Team members: Tae Kim Joel Stewart Gerald Greenlee Thomas Peabody Faculty Advisor: Patrick Driscoll Client: Tirecenters, Inc. & TACOM The retread supply chain for Tirecenters, Inc. (TCI) is imbedded within complex operation that is moving from fourteen independent regional locations whose success has been measured purely by profitability solely in the retread industry to a national network operation that extends the value chain of new tire manufacturing for Michelin, North America. We present three complementary modeling approaches: systems dynamics, discrete event simulation, information systems effectiveness, to help the management of TCI to better understand and manage their supply chain from acquisition to distribution. Strategic issues associated with supplier agreements and pricing power will also be discussed. Presentations Track: Modeling & Simulation Room #: 105 Time: 050 - 1135 ABSTRACT The Development of a Transportation Risk Assessment Tool for the Military and Industry Team members: Joshua Drake Darryl Brown Jason Mulligan William Murray Schuyler Williamson Faculty Advisor: Timothy Trainor Client: American Int'l Group and the US Army Safety Center In recent years, Engineering Management majors worked with American International Group Consultants (AIGC) to develop a web-based decision support tool that would quantitatively assess compliance with safety best practices by clients in the ground transportation industry. The overall objective of this year’s work is to take the lessons learned from working with industry and create a military application of this tool. Previous work focused on developing a standardized means by which AIGC could quantitatively assess compliance with best safety practices by clients in the ground transportation industry. Output from this model, the Fleet Operations Safety Assessment Tool (FOSAT), provides users a means to prioritize areas of focus for improvement in safety performance. The FOSAT also led to a methodology for using output data as a means to forecast future safety performance metrics based on improvements in overall safety score as measured by the FOSAT. The same process can aid the military in assessing their safety practices in ground transportation operations. The Transportation Safety and Risk Assessment (TSRA) tool, the military application of the FOSAT, can help these organizations identify and prioritize efforts for safety improvement. Data generated from the TSRA will be used to develop methods for forecasting improvements in safety performance metrics based on improvements in safety as measured by score on the TSRA. AIGC will use our testing of the TSRA as a proof of concept for the industry-version of this safety risk assessment model (the FOSAT). Presentations Track: Process Modeling & Analysis Room #: 104 Time: 050 - 1135 ABSTRACT Hypersonic Projectile Technology Production Engineering Requirements Exploration and utilization against Time Sensitive Targets (PRESENTED in ROOM 408) Team members: David Andros Gregory Washington Kurt Schwandt David Park Faculty Advisor: Willie McFadden Client: AMRDEC/SAIC/BAE The Army Air and Missile Defense is transforming to meet the changes and challenges our Armed Forces` will face in the future operational environment. This transformation will result in more versatile, responsive, adaptive, mission-tailored, multifunctional capabilities for Army and Joint Force Commanders (JFCs) executing the joint operations concepts (JOCs) of stability, homeland security, strategic deterrence and major combat operations (MCOs).1 Currently, hypersonic projectile technology has been focused on defensive operations. Part of the research team's focus is to identify the time sensitive target (TST) set that a SCRAM Jet could be used against in the attack. This portion of the research is designed to expand the Army's and JFC's capability to shape and influence their areas of operations at long ranges and at the most opportune time by hitting TSTs. Additionally, the research group will explore and model the engineering requirements needed to produce this system. Presentations Track: Project Management Room #: 101 Time: 050 - 1135 ABSTRACT Process Engineering at the West Point DOL Warehouse Team members: Edward Behrendt Matt Darak Jason Hillman Marissa Limsiaco Faculty Advisor: Patrick Downes Client: Mr. Mark Wicher, Department of Logistics The purpose of our project is to identify problems in the Department of Logistics (DOL) Warehouse and determine what areas we have to improve. The DOL warehouse is in charge of supporting many activities on post. For example, they are responsible for R-day issue, and book issue. The DOL Warehouse handles every item cadets and faculty use on post. This research will study two areas that the warehouse can seek improvement. We will seek to build an efficient organizational and management layout to help make day-to-day operations smoother. We will also explore the variety of warehouse software available and determine which software might be beneficial to the warehouse. Presentations Track: Re-engineering Systems Room #: 106 Time: 050 - 1135 ABSTRACT Runway Operational Quality Assurance (ROQA) System Team members: Robert Smith Yusuf Mohamed Mahmoud Yessad Janet Geldermann Faculty Advisor: George Donohue Client: Dr. Benjamin Levy, Sensis Corporations The nation’s air traffic system is approaching capacity at major airports where consumer demand for air service continues to increase and new runway construction has been limited by land constraints. One proposed approach to raise air traffic system capacity is to reduce aircraft separation distances during the approach and landing phases of flight. Prior to making such changes there is a need to quantify projected safety impacts of increased runway operation tempos. A team of Systems Engineering students from George Mason University, working with the Sensis Corporation of New York, has developed the initial design for a runway monitoring system designated the Runway Operational Quality Assurance (ROQA) system. Similar to the successful Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Flight Operational Quality Assurance (FOQA) safety program that records and analyzes aircraft operational data, the ROQA system is designed to provide operational performance measurements of runway operations during the approach and landing phases of operation. ROQA data is analyzed for parameter exceedences and statistical distributions are calculated to determine collision risk. This paper describes the system design and discusses the simulation results of the statistical performance measurements. The simulation output will be used in conjunction with ongoing GMU studies that computes and forecasts accident precursors and incidents with respect to the impact upon collision probability rates on runway approaches and landings. Presentations Track: Statistical Analysis & Stochastic Processes Room #: 103 Time: 050 - 1135 ABSTRACT A Simulation-Based Sensor Network Decision Support System Team members: Anthony Costa John Reinke Christopher Larsen Matthew Thiel Dan Morse Faculty Advisor: William Bland Client: Space and Terrestria ations Technology Directorate (S&TCD), Communications-Electronics Research, Development, and Engineering Center (CERDEC), Research, Development, and Engineering Command (RDECOM) When employing a sensor network, the operator must determine how to best employ available sensor assets within the search region. To enhance sensor network performance, sensors are generally deployed in clusters throughout the search region, with individual sensors reporting to a cluster head, which then reports to the base station. Decisions on how many sensors to cluster together and how many clusters to deploy may directly impact the success or failure of the mission. The purpose of this research project was to create a decision support system to assist the sensor network operator with these critical decisions. Since these decisions are highly situation-dependent, we designed the decision support system to solicit a value hierarchy from the sensor network operator. This value hierarchy addresses the relative importance of search region coverage, sensor network connectivity, and resource utilization. The model then searches through simulation-generated data to recommend the cluster size and density that best supports the defined value hierarchy. We used the COMSIM Sensor Network Simulator/Analysis Tool to generate the data for our decision support system. This model analyzes sensor network coverage and communications links using a point-to-point RF model. We ran 30 simulations for various cluster configurations in various terrain environments, collecting performance data related to the value hierarchy issues. Presentations Track: Decision Analysis Room #: 102 Time: 245 - 1330 ABSTRACT Arming Army UAVs Team members: Brian Lee Brandt Germann Matthew Wesmiller Todd Severson Faculty Advisor: Roger Burk Client: Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems Project Office; Redstone Arsenal, AL Our group is faced with the challenge of finding the optimal combination of mounting a weapon system on an Army Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). Specifically, the task is to evaluate a set of near-term options for arming UAVs considering the platforms Shadow, Hunter, Predator, and Firescout, and the weapons Hellfire, APKWS, and Viper Strike. The primary clients that we are working with are Colonel Burke and Jim Charlton. Jim Charlton is a senior systems engineer at Aerodyne and program manager for tactical UAV systems. He supports Colonel Burke who is the Army’s program manager for tactical UAVs. The deliverables that we will be presenting to the clients at the end of the year include a final report that encompasses our research and work throughout the year and an analytical model in excel. Each group member comes from a different academic background and can offer various skills to the group. Matt Wesmiller and Brandt Germann both come from Operational Research backgrounds, Brian Lee is a Systems Engineer, and Todd Severson is an Engineering Management major with a Mechanical Engineering focus. We will be integrating and applying Systems Engineering and Engineering Management principles and concepts to provide accurate, representative, and reliable models of alternative solutions to meet our client’s needs. The engineering model that we will be following is the Systems Engineering and Management Process (SEMP) as taught at West Point. Presentations Track: Modeling & Simulation Room #: 105 Time: 245 - 1330 ABSTRACT Integration of Systems Engineering Best Practices with Department of Defense Acquisition Policy Team members: Travis Reinold Meghan Vrabel Harold Turner Jessica Forman John Hitchings Faculty Advisor: Michael McGinnis Client: Dr. Glenn F. Lamartin, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense The military needs of Department of Defense (DoD) are constantly evolving in response to technological developments and a rapidly changing world. The Global War on Terrorism dictates the need for new military equipment. The DoD acquisition process, as defined by Regulations 5000.1 and 5000.2, provides new, improved military capabilities in response to an identified need. The overarching goal of the defense acquisition system is to provide effective, affordable and timely systems to users that fill capability gaps. The five principles that the defense acquisition system aims to incorporate and address are flexibility, responsiveness, innovation, discipline, and streamlined and effective management. The current acquisition lifecycle takes too long and costs too much. This paper presents work-to-date analyzing different systems engineering processes and compares them to the current acquisition process in order to improve the defense acquisition system. By analyzing systems engineering processes and comparing their best practices to DoD Acquisition Directive 5000.1, as well as the Defense Acquisition University Handbook, we identified problems with the current role of systems engineering in DoD acquisition and developed recommendations for ways to merge systems engineering best practices with the DoD 5000 series. Presentations Track: Process Modeling & Analysis Room #: 104 Time: 245 - 1330 ABSTRACT Sustainability Assessment Of The Future Combat System In The Brigade Combat Team Team members: Daryl Acker Dustin Starling Elijah Ingram Jacqueline Desenna Bryon Vincent Faculty Advisor: Paul West Client: Michael Alter, Operations Manager, Logistics Integration Directorate The Army’s logistical structure faces new challenges of rapid deployment and self-sustainment to engage the demands of current and future threats. Sustainment system must have a reduced logistical footprint, increased operational availability, and minimized life cycle costs to maintain forces in multiple theaters of operation. Commanders require on-demand information and access to a system of systems network that contains the ability to forecast and prioritize needs at the lowest levels. The Army’s goal is to sustain the Future Combat System and Brigade Combat Team for 3 days in high tempo operations and 7 days in low tempo operations with a logistically networked system aim at maximizing the availability of resources. To support these needs, our capstone group assessed the supportability of the FCS and the BCT and developed a model optimize logistical footprint, operational availability, and life cycle cost to sustain future forces. Using the System Engineering and Management Process (SEMP), we developed a decision matrix that assists our client in identifying alternatives that meet logistical and operational demands, which increase the Army’s ability to effectively respond to current and potential threats. Presentations Track: Re-engineering Systems Room #: 106 Time: 245 - 1330 ABSTRACT DAMTA Imagery Integration Team members: Michael Beissinger Patrick Horvat Russell Nelson Jason Schwab Faculty Advisor: Robert Powell Client: Edward Creegan, Army Research Laboratory The Army Research Laboratory (ARL) at White Sands Missile Range (WSMR), New Mexico is currently involved in overseeing the development of a new battlefield weather information resource. This new resource deemed DAMTA (Disposable, Air-droppable, Meteorological Tower Array) will consist of multiple individual towers, which will be dispersed over selected battlefield locations by an airborne platform. They will collect and transmit meteorological data in unattended operation for up to 30 days. The purpose of this current research project is to investigate different digital cameras to integrate with the current DAMTA system created by Applied Technologies Inc. of Longmont, CO. The DAMTA project encourages the use of off-the-shelf technology. The mission of this project was to provide a detailed recommendation for imagery enhancement to the DAMTA platform. Digital imagery in particular is the focus of this proposal as it provides valuable information not available through other sensors and yet highly desirable on the battlefield. ARL provides oversight and guidance for the project. Both The project group and ARL worked together with experts in the imagery field to develop the criteria in which each camera was tested. The criteria in which we selected the best camera are as follows: 1) Radiometric Resolution 2) Spatial Resolution 3) Field of View 4) Power Consumption. In addition to the deliverable of recommending the best digital camera to integrate into the DAMTA, the group also made recommendations to alter DAMTA configurations in order to increase the longevity of its operation in the field. Presentations Track: Decision Analysis Room #: 102 Time: 350 - 1435 ABSTRACT US Army Employment of Unattended Ground Sensors Team members: Andrew Taylor John Madden Scott Komaromy Kenneth Elgort Faculty Advisor: William Klimack Client: Sensor and Electronic Device Directorate, Army Research Laboratory Army research initiatives include research and development into unattended ground sensors (UGS). UGS will improve the ability of tactical units to collect information and are expected to play an increasingly important role. Sensors are of several types, including acoustic, seismic, magnetic, electric field, and imaging. It is expected that deployed sensors will be self-organizing to form a sensor field. Because of power and communication limitations, it is anticipated that the sensor field will be required to process data locally, and report only the results of this analysis. Given a detection, the report will include the classification or identification of an object transiting the field, as well as the field’s self-assessed level of confidence in the estimate. This study examined the level of confidence required before a decision maker would reallocate resources based on the report. Combat arms officers were provided a tactical situation and the sensor field level of confidence required before commitment of forces was elicited. A computer model was then used to investigate what sensor mixtures and densities were required to meet this threshold. The impact of correct and incorrect decisions for a tactical situation was examined using a high resolution combat model. Additionally, the responsible unit level and doctrinal employment were examined. Presentations Track: Modeling & Simulation Room #: 105 Time: 350 - 1435 ABSTRACT Plug Power Team members: Jacob Fritz Daniel Rix Brandon Drobenak Sandro Garcia Faculty Advisor: Bobbie Foote Client: Rich Matlock, Plug Power Our Capstone project consists of modeling the risk associated with a constraint based production. We will determine when they will reach their first production limit (storage, unload, etc.) and then how this will affect other areas of production. Plug Power is convinced from the demonstration program that they will receive large contracts to support DOD use of fuel cells for power generation on government installations. Plug Power is concerned that their production facility/warehouse layout, door capacity and queue buffer for trucks are insufficient to handle large increases in production volume on short notice. If Plug Power receives large DOD/Army orders for their systems then they may exceed their current constraints in production and would need to quickly determine feasibility of production plans. Plug Power has already installed and is currently maintaining fuel cells on 36 different Army/DOD installations since FY01 as part of the DOD Residential PEM Demonstration Program. The Army’s Construction Engineering Research Lab (CERL) of the Engineering Research and Development Command (ERDC) is the Army’s lead advocate for this program. Presentations Track: Process Modeling & Analysis Room #: 104 Time: 350 - 1435 ABSTRACT US Military Academy Reception-Day Simulation and Optimization Team members: Jeffrey Glick Stephen Fuller Arlan Sheets Thomas Kavanaugh Faculty Advisor: Simon Goerger Client: USCC, LTC Martis R-Day OIC Reception-Day (R-Day) at the US Military Academy (USMA) involves in-processing, medical screening, issue points, drilling, haircuts, lunch, and a multitude of other tasks for an entire incoming freshman class. Approximately 1300 cadet candidates must be processed in less than eight hours. After significant difficulties during the 2003 R-Day, USMA senior leadership requested that the Department of Systems Engineering analyze the process and make suggestions for improvement. After initial research and data-collection conducted by student and faculty predecessors, our team took charge of this project and expanded its focus as part of a full-year capstone course. Utilizing the Systems Engineering and Management Process, we defined the problem, identified the needs of USMA leadership, conducted system decomposition, analyzed historical data, and collected other essential background information. We then used Pro-Model software to construct a detailed simulation of the entire R-Day process as a system of servers and queues. The complexity and sheer scale of the system offered several challenges throughout the modeling process. The first half of R-Day is a linear process with the second half being non-linear in nature. Controlling the flow of cadet candidates revealed many difficulties R-Day coordinators face each year. The model allowed us to understand how seemingly insignificant alterations to service times, servers available, move times, routing, and other parameters could result in substantive improvements to the overall flow of the system. Our qualitative and quantitative analysis, along with the simulation itself, allows USMA senior leadership to appreciate the importance of carefully placed, flow-control measures and the need for readily available information to the system users on the status of specific servers. Presentations Track: Re-engineering Systems Room #: 106 Time: 350 - 1435 ABSTRACT Ridership Analysis for Colorado Springs Transit Team members: Ben Napper Ryan Cross Rob Stanfield Eugene Yoo Faculty Advisor: Andy Armacost Client: Colorado Springs Transit Springs Transit operates the public transportation system in Colorado Springs. In the fall elections, the citizens approved a major tax increase that will double Transit’s annual budget. As a consequence, the public transportation system is being redesigned to increase the number of hubs from one to seven, beginning in 2007. The foundation of the new design will be an accurate prediction of bus ridership. In this project, we apply statistical methods to the problem of predicting bus ridership. In addition, we apply multi-attribute decision tools to the problem of determining which of four contractors should be selected to conduct a May 2005 analysis of ridership. Presentations Track: Statistical Analysis & Stochastic Processes Room #: 103 Time: 350 - 1435 ABSTRACT Bradley Lethality Design Team members: Sharonda Aplon Matthew Piosa Jayme Orr David Hilling Derek Curry Faculty Advisor: William Klimack Client: COL Larry Holling Ground Combat Systems The Bradley Fighting Vehicle System entered into Army service in 1981 and has been used in a variety of roles with several variations from the basic vehicle. The main role is to provide protected transport of an infantry squad on the battlefield and over watching fires to support the dismounted infantry with a turret-mounted cannon. The Bradley is also used to suppress and defeat enemy tanks, reconnaissance vehicles, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, and attack helicopters. In order to maintain lethal dominance until the year 2032, the Bradley will require a new direct fire system to defeat these competing systems. Several candidate systems are available in various calibers. Larger caliber systems provide increased lethality, but reduce the amount of ammunition available and have increased cost. This project investigated which alternative provides the optimum Bradley weapons system. Modeling was selected as the methodology. The client was interested in the weapon performance over a variety of terrains and mission profiles. In order to reduce the number of combinations of design variables, Pythagoras, an Agent-Based Model, was employed to investigate the optimum burst size for each weapon. Then a high resolution combat model, JCATS, was employed to examine the performance of the candidate systems as compared to the current system. A value model was then developed to compare the candidate gun systems. The combination of simulation systems used in this project makes our project unique and offers a multi-dimensional perspective of the problem. Presentations Track: Decision Analysis Room #: 102 Time: 455 - 1540 ABSTRACT Modeling Human Behavior in a Synthetic Environment Team members: Adam Creel Bryan Schnitker Simon Jennings Michael Figer Faculty Advisor: Paul West Client: LTC John Surdu (PM OneSAF) Small unit operations and personal combat are hallmarks of Army operations in the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT). High-resolution combat simulations, with their long history of operations research analysis, are challenged to keep pace with such low-intensity conflict, especially in an environment of continually evolving enemy technology and tactics. To keep troops combat ready, the Army requires simulations to represent the full spectrum of battlefield conditions as closely as possible. In particular, simulations must be able to represent the intangible and subtle influences of “soft” human behaviors such as morale, leadership, and other personal issues. To address this need, our team has developed a model to represent the effects of these behaviors in combat simulations by linking their effects to a corresponding degradation in physical behavior. Morale, Fatigue, Risk and Experience are the four primary tenants of human behaviors that our model considers. We believe that this innovative model can help our transitioning Army incorporate many of these abstract and indirect effects of combat into its training and operational planning. Presentations Track: Modeling & Simulation Room #: 105 Time: 455 - 1540 ABSTRACT Infrastructure Analysis System (IAS) Team members: Yousuf Ashparie Oluwaseyi Bahorun Greg Koch Greg Siegel Petko Stoyanov Faculty Advisor: George Donohue Client: Dr. Jerry Brashear, Crit structure Protection Project The Senior Policy Group, advisors to the governors of National Capital Region (DC,MD, VA) need a decision aid tool to help in appropriating Critical Infrastructure Protection funds. A study was conducted to develop a preliminary design of the decision support and capital budgeting system. The proposed system is designed to work with data from energy, water, and healthcare sectors. The system will address the combined problem of network degradation, Indication and Warning. The system will also provide planning and capital budgeting guidance for government and sector authorities. The system will be referred to as the Infrastructure Analysis System (IAS). Currently the Senior Policy Group does not have a comprehensive method for allocating resources. The areas with the highest concentration of infrastructure and sector relationships are most critical to the region. Infrastructures have dependencies within one another. The Water and Energy sectors depend on each other and the Health sector depends on functionality of the previous two sectors. If water ceases flowing to a power plant, the power plant would be required to shutdown in order to avoid over heating. This would cause a hospital or healthcare facility to function without these resources or close altogether. Three system components are integrated with system infrastructure network security. A mathematical optimization mode, network analysis algorithm, and a graphical user interface. This paper will discuss the design process associated with each component of the system and will conclude with preliminary results obtained from sample optimization runs. Presentations Track: Process Modeling & Analysis Room #: 104 Time: 455 - 1540 ABSTRACT School Bus Routing for Academy School District 20 Team members: Brian An Blake Sellers Ben Moran Faculty Advisor: Andy Armacost Client: Academy School District 20 Academy School District 20 is opening a new K-12 campus in fall, 2005. With a fixed number of buses, the district would like to determine the best routing plan for this new school and the interactions it has with the other schools in the district. We propose a solution methodology that combines a known heuristic (due to Corberan et al.) with integer programming models that generate routes and assign specific buses to sequences of routes across multiple schools. We integrate the solution into the District’s planning software, EduLog, to enable a graphical display of the solution. Presentations Track: Re-engineering Systems Room #: 106 Time: 455 - 1540